The SIA released their report for January sales. The numbers look dramatic with a 47% year-on-year increase. That, however, is more an indication of how bad January 2009 was than how good January 2010 looks. January 2009 was a $15B month in the industry making the run rate look like the late 1990′s. The SIA reports January 2010 as a $22.4B month which would be a harbinger of a $250-$270B year for the industry. I believe this is likely and well above the current SIA forecast of $240B. The February report, which should be available in early April, just ahead of earnings, should be telling. February typically shows the “seasonal pattern” oft cited in company earnings announcements and mentioned by several in this quarter’s guidance. If those numbers show only modest decline or, better, sales flat with January, its another harbinger for a good year. We’re well into the dynamics of an up cycle and there may be some additional “running room” for revenue and valuation growth. We should be looking now, however, for what will make it “run out of steam”, probably in early 2011.

100% of the growth is in Asia!

Did anyone mention "V-shaped" recovery? ...

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